Name of program	Oxfam Program Development Fund
Name of organization	Oxfam Novib
Contact person	Jesse Arnon, Cocoa and Living Income Lead, Oxfam Novib
E-mail	jesse.arnon@oxfamnovib.nl
Oxfam’s, partner and allies involved	Tony’s Open Chain
Timeframe	01.09.2026 – 23.12.2026
Proposal submission deadline	06.08.2026

This consultancy aims to contribute to sustained higher incomes for cocoa farming households. While the Living Income concept provides the foundations, this assignment introduces a more explicitfocus on income resilience, which will be defined and operationalised during the consultancy.

The work represents Phase 1 of a research trajectory led by Oxfam Novib in close collaboration with Tony’s Open Chain and with advisory engagement from Lindt & Sprüngli.As we refer to Tony’s Open Chain and Lindt & Sprüngli throughout this document, it’s important to note that their roles differ: Tony’s Open Chain is a formal project partner, while Lindt & Sprüngli contributes in a lighter, advisorycapacity. Phase 1 will assess existing cocoa income interventions, including pricing, productivity, cash support, cost reduction, and gender focused approaches.

Using desk-based research and expert interviews, the study will examine which strategies support higher incomes over time and which strengthen income resilience by reducing income volatility and improving recovery from shocks. The findings will inform strategic decision making, programme refinement, and future fundraising, with a focus on cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire.
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Oxfam is an international confederation of 21 organizations, working with its partners and allies, reaching out to millions of people around the world. Together, we tackle inequalities to end poverty and injustice, now and in the long term–for an equal future.

Income Resilience

Cocoa farming is a critical livelihood for millions of smallholder households, yet it is highly vulnerable to market fluctuations, climatic shocks, and systemic risks. The Living Income (LI) concept has been pivotal in benchmarking poverty and catalyzing action to improve incomes in the cocoa sector. However, focusing solely on LI levels overlooks critical dimensions of income resilience.This research integrates income resilience into our understanding of cocoa farmer incomes, with the aim of improving company decision-making on income-enhancing interventions, deepening our understanding of farmer decision-making, and ultimately informing the design of more effective and sustainable cocoa strategies.

Price volatility, unpredictable yields, and other shocks make it difficult for farmers to sustain adequate incomes, plan investments, and reduce exposure to income risks. As in other sectors, uncertainty discourages long-term investment, particularly when returns are delayed. This is especially relevant in cocoa, where investments in replanting, rehabilitation, and productivity improvements often require several years to generate returns, while many farmers operate with limited liquidity and limited capacity to manage risk.In this context, creating sustained higher income requires not only sufficient income levels but, critically, greater income stability. Without more predictable earnings over time, cocoa farmers are unlikely to undertake the long-term investments necessary to sustain productivity and livelihoods.

The Living Income (LI) concept has been pivotal in benchmarking poverty and catalyzing action to improve incomes in the cocoa sector. It has inspired concrete interventions and created a movement in Europe, where multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSIs) increasingly prioritize income as a core issue.

However, focusing solely on LI levels overlooks critical dimensions of income stability and resilience. Many private sector theories of change assume a “virtuous cycle” where higher income automatically enables more investment in cocoa, generating further income. Evidence that such cycles reliably occur is limited, and existing metrics do not capture the full spectrum of farmers’ capacity to maintain and recover income amid shocks.

This study proposes to complement the LI lens with the concept of income resilience, using a working definition of the set of capacities that reduce farmers’ exposure to income loss from shocks and enable recovery from these shocks.

For Phase 1, the goal of sustained higher income is analyzed through two distinct but related dimensions: (1) achieving higher absolute income over time to close the living income gap, and (2) enhancing income resilience through different elements, such as risk management and recovery, preventing, absorbing, and recovering from shocks that would otherwise reduce incomes. These elements of income resilience, with their longer-term perspective and focus on stability, complement the living income framework in three ways. First, they highlight how interventions may influence farmers’ income and decision-making. Second, they can support higher absolute incomes, thereby contributing to closing the living income gap. Third, they allow us to value strategies that improve resilience even if they do not immediately increase absolute income.

Understanding which interventions are most effective in improving income and resilience will support strategic decision-making, program refinement, and aim to contribute to sector-wide transformation through Oxfam’s influencing agenda.

This consultancy project is part of the first of three phases:

Phase 1 (Scope of this ToR): Defines the research area and terminology and evaluates and prioritises existing living income strategies and interventions focused on cocoa income, using desk‑based quantitative analysis and expert interviews for qualitative insights. The phase will be implemented in close cooperation with Oxfam Novib, the client of the assignment, and guided by a working group consisting of the consultant, the client, and Oxfam partners Tony's Open Chain and Lindt & Sprüngli. It aims to provide actionable insights to support sustained higher incomes for cocoa farmers and inform private sector strategies, including those of Tony's Open Chain and Lindt & Sprüngli.

Phase 2 (fundraising during phase 1): Will explore farmer perspectives on income, resilience, risk, and investment decisions to test hypotheses generated in Phase 1. Phase 2 is not part of Oxfam’s existing funding scope.

Phase 3 (optional depending partner interest): Will roll out resilience-oriented interventions at a pilot level with dedicated farmer groups of Tony’sOpen Chain and/or Lindt & Sprüngli.

To view the full TOR, see here> https://oxfam.box.com/s/9jed65cprawez4fvjn0id7wbesa6878m

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Short-term Expert Consultancy Sustained Higher Income: From Living Income to Resilient Cocoa Li